Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
